21 July 2026
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211137
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of Baja California.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Southwest of Hawaii:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves generally westward during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)
...FAUSTO STOPS STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Fausto was located near 16.3, -118.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
251
WTPZ31 KNHC 211438
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
...FAUSTO STOPS STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 118.8W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 118.8 West. Fausto is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and that general
motion should continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest,
accompanied by an increase in forward speed, is expected tonight
and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected to resume later today and
continue through Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for
a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
-
Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 211438
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 118.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 118.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 118.4W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 135.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 140.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 118.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 211439
TCDEP1
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
Somewhat surprisingly, the core of Fausto has lost organization
during the past several hours. The central convection has become
disorganized in conventional satellite imagery, and a 0913Z AMSR
overpass indicated that the low-level center had become partly
exposed to the north of the convection. This is likely due to a
resurgence in the northerly vertical shear that has been present for
the last several days. The satellite intensity estimates have
decreased since the last advisory, and based on these the initial
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.
The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/10 kt. The track
guidance forecasts a turn toward the west-northwest in the next
12 h or so as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone
builds westward. A general west-northwestward to westward motion
is then expected for the rest of the forecast period. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter,
there remains an increase in the north-south spread between the GFS
on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and Google
DeepMind on the south side of the guidance envelope. The new
forecast track has minor adjustments from the previous track, is
similar to the previous forecast at 120 h, and lies just a little to
the north of center of the guidance envelope.
The models continue to forecast that Fausto will reach a light-shear
environment in the next 12-24 h. However, the cyclone is moving over
slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and as a result the
intensity guidance is showing less strengthening during the first
36-48 h than previously. It should also be noted that the
shear has been a bit stronger than forecast all through the life of
Fausto. With that being said, the intensity forecast will follow
the guidance in showing a resumed strengthening later today and a
peak intensity in 36-60 h. Beyond that time, a gradual weakening
trend is expected as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable environment. The new forecast
is nudged downward from the previous forecast for the first 48 h
and changed little thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 16.3N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 16.8N 119.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 17.2N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 17.8N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 18.2N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 19.5N 135.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 20.3N 140.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 211438
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) 2(69) X(69)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 72(74) 4(78)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 4(45)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 49(55)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN