NHC Eastern North Pacific

16 June 2025

• Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
  000
  ABPZ20 KNHC 162337
  TWOEP
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  500 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
  
  For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
  
  Active Systems:
  The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
  Tropical Cyclone Five-E, located in the eastern Pacific basin off
  the coast of Guatemala.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
  
  &&
  Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E are issued
  under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
  Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E are issued
  under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Gibbs/Cangialosi
• Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052025)
  ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Jun 16 the center of Five-E was located near 11.2, -92.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
• Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 2
  Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

  000
  WTPZ35 KNHC 170241
  TCPEP5
   
  BULLETIN
  Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number   2
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
  900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025
   
  ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
   
   
  SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
  ----------------------------------------------
  LOCATION...11.2N 92.6W
  ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
  PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
   
   
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS
  --------------------
  CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
   
  The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Bahia De
  Huatulco to Punta Maldonado and a Tropical Storm Watch east of
  Bahia De Huatulco to Salina Cruz.
   
  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
   
  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
  * Bahia De Huatulco to Punta Maldonado
   
  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
  * Salina Cruz to Bahia De Huatulco
   
  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
  within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
  before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
  winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
  dangerous.
   
  A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
  possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
   
  Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress 
  of this system.
   
  For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
  products issued by your national meteorological service.
   
   
  DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
  ----------------------
  At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
  was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
  depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A
  slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the
  next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
  approach the coast of southern Mexico by late Wednesday.
   
  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
  Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
  tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane on Wednesday.
   
  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
   
   
  HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
  ----------------------
  Key messages for Tropical Depression Five-E can be found in
  the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header
  MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
   
  RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Five-E may produce rainfall totals of
  2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal
  sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of
  Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz.  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches,
  with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican
  states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
  threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
  terrain.
   
  For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
  Tropical Depression Five-E, please see the National Weather
  Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
  hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
   
  WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
  by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
  tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday.
   
  STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
  the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge
  will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
   
  SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
  affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so.  These
  swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
  conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
   
   
  NEXT ADVISORY
  -------------
  Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
  Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
   
  $$
  Forecaster Cangialosi

• Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
  Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

  024 
  WTPZ25 KNHC 170240
  TCMEP5
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025
  0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  92.6W AT 17/0300Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  92.6W AT 17/0300Z
  AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  92.4W
   
  FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.8N  93.3W
  MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.5N  94.2W
  MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.3N  95.2W
  MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
  50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
  34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.2N  96.3W
  MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
  34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N  97.4W
  MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
  64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
  34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.6N  98.7W...INLAND
  MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  50 KT...  0NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
  34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
   
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
  MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N  92.6W
   
  INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/0600Z
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

• Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
  Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

  000
  WTPZ45 KNHC 170242
  TCDEP5
   
  Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
  900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025
   
  Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the
  system has developed a well-defined circulation, and deep convection
  has been consolidating near and north of the center. Therefore, the
  system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial
  intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from
  TAFB and SAB.
   
  The depression is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A slower
  west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
  next few days as the ridge currently steering the system weakens.
  Although the models are in fair agreement, the complexity of the
  track moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico means that
  small changes in the system's heading will cause notable differences
  on where and when the most significant wind impacts will occur.
  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
  envelope and is generally similar to the previous one. Users are
  reminded that the average 60-hour NHC track error is a little more
  than 60 n mi.
   
  The environmental conditions are nearly ideal for intensification
  with the vertical wind shear expected to be less than 10 kt,
  mid-level humidities near or above 80 percent, and SSTs over 29
  C for the next 2 or 3 days. Nearly all of the models show the
  system strengthening significantly, and given the conducive
  conditions, rapid intensification is a possibility. The NHC
  intensity forecast lies near the consensus models and shows the
  cyclone becoming a tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane
  before it reaches Mexico.
   
  Based on this forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
  portions of southern Mexico. Watches will likely be extended
  westward on Tuesday.
   
   
  KEY MESSAGES:
   
  1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early
  Tuesday and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it
  approaches southern Mexico. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
  portions of southern Mexico.
   
  2. The depression will likely produce heavy rainfall across
  portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week.
  Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
  areas of steep terrain.
   
  3. Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center
  crosses the coast.
   
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  17/0300Z 11.2N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
   12H  17/1200Z 11.8N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
   24H  18/0000Z 12.5N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
   36H  18/1200Z 13.3N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
   48H  19/0000Z 14.2N  96.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
   60H  19/1200Z 15.5N  97.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
   72H  20/0000Z 16.6N  98.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
   96H  21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
   
  $$
  Forecaster Cangialosi

• Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
  Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

  000
  FOPZ15 KNHC 170241
  PWSEP5
                                                                      
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2      
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
  0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025                                            
                                                                      
  AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
  LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
  WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
   
  L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)
  L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
  L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
   
  ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)
  ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
  ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
   
  15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  15(19)   3(22)   X(22)
  15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
   
  ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   5(33)   X(33)
  ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
  ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
   
  P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  46(54)   2(56)   X(56)
  P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   2(25)   X(25)
  P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
   
  P ANGEL        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  35(40)  32(72)   1(73)   X(73)
  P ANGEL        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  22(28)   X(28)   X(28)
  P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
   
  HUATULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  22(34)   1(35)   X(35)
  HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
   
  10N 95W        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
   
  15N 95W        34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  26(44)   6(50)   X(50)   X(50)
  15N 95W        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
  15N 95W        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
   
  SALINA CRUZ    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  P SAN JOSE     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER CANGIALOSI