000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232042
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO AN ELONGATED
SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.  TWO SEPARATE CIRA AMSU ESTIMATES OF WIND
RADII FROM THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WIND FIELD
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
 
BUD HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 325/6 KT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE
CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN CAUSE
BUD TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT MOST CLOSELY APPROACHES
THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE LEANS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ON DAYS 4 AND 5...A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF IS FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOWN BY
THE GFDL AND HWRF.
 
BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 48
HOURS OR SO...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C.  AFTER 48 HOURS...A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR...ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR...WARM
200/250 MB TEMPERATURES...AND COOLER SSTS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
WEAKENING.  IN FACT...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM MODEL.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD.  BUD IS GROWING IN SIZE...AND EVEN IF
THE CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE COAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE JALISCO...
COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN COASTS ON SATURDAY.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 16.7N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 17.8N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 18.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232042
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
...BUD MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS BUT GROWING IN SIZE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 107.8W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BUD.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST.  BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND BUD
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR ON THURSDAY.  WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG