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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 May 2012 14:46:36 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 May 2012 14:45:42 GMT

Tropical Storm BUD Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231445
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
RECENT 0843 UTC AMSU-B AND 1055 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW
THAT BUD HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ENCIRCLED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY
STRENGTHENING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ASSUMING A CENTER TOO FAR TO
THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF AMSU ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 55 KT AS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.

BUD IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/8 KT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
DUE TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. 
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BUD TO STALL OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST BY 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR BUD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. 
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS NOW STRENGTHENING...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND AGAIN BRINGS BUD TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING NEAR
70-75 KT IN 24-36 HOURS...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY 2 DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC FORECAST ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOCATIONS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS NOT DECREASED...AND INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 13.4N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm BUD Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231445
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
...BUD FINALLY STRENGTHENS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 107.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST.  BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
EARLY FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND BUD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm BUD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 23 2012


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 231445
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012               
1500 UTC WED MAY 23 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       7      19      37
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       2       5      27      35      36
TROPICAL STORM  38      20      40      52      55      42      25
HURRICANE       62      80      58      43      12       5       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       58      60      43      32      10       4       2
HUR CAT 2        3      15      11       7       2       X       X
HUR CAT 3        1       4       4       3       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    75KT    70KT    65KT    50KT    40KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   5(17)   2(19)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  12(21)   8(29)   2(31)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  11(19)   6(25)   3(28)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   2(12)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm BUD Advisory 11 Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Wed, 23 May 2012 14:45:52 GMT
Tropical Storm BUD Advisory 11 Forecast Track (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Wed, 23 May 2012 14:45:52 GMT
Tropical Storm BUD Advisory 11 Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Wed, 23 May 2012 14:45:50 GMT

Tropical Storm BUD Forecast/Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 23 2012


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 231445
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
1500 UTC WED MAY 23 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 107.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

NOAA Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks

National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks

NHC East Pacific Outlook
NHC East Pacific Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BUD...LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
NHC Atlantic Outlook
NHC Atlantic Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN